Scenario diagnostic
Would your business model survive?
Most business models are validated against today. This one puts yours against the futures that could break it — one component at a time — and shows you exactly where it snaps.
Peer-reviewed method
Haaker et al., Futures (2017)
- 1Describe your business model
- 2Pick 3-5 uncertainties
- 3Map what each one touches
- 4Build the heat map
- 5Read the patterns
- 6Fix what breaks
It tests components, not vibes
Your revenue streams, channels, key partners and cost structure are each judged separately. A model rarely fails everywhere at once — it fails at one joint.
Both extremes, every time
Each uncertainty is tested at both ends. When a component fails at both ends, no scenario saves you: that is a redesign you already owe yourself.
Impact, not prediction
The method deliberately ignores how likely a future is. It asks what happens to you if it arrives — which is the part you can act on.
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